ATAR Example for a Small Business

ATAR Forecast Example for a Small Business

In this ATAR forecast example, we will consider a small business. In this example, there is a coffee shop in a local area. Their new product is a service – they plan to … Read more...

How the ATAR Forecasting Model Works

What is the ATAR forecasting model?

The ATAR forecasting model is primarily designed to forecast sales and profit contribution of new products following its initial years of release/launch.

In most cases, in addition to achieving their strategic goals, firms will … Read more...

STOP: ATAR reality checks!

Nothing destroys the credibility of a business report faster than inaccurate or wildly optimistic financial forecasts. I have seen students provide financial forecasts of a product line extension that would generate billions in dollars within a couple of years. And … Read more...

Most ATAR factors are interrelated

Interrelated ATAR factors in the forecast

Possibly one of the more troublesome issues to consider when using the ATAR model for forecasting new products is how the four basic components – awareness, trial, availability and repeat/rebuy – impact each other.… Read more...

Product cannibalization in the ATAR forecast

Product cannibalization in the ATAR forecast

Product cannibalization is when the firm’s new product “wins” a proportion of its sales (market share) from the firm’s other existing products – that is, the new product “eats away” the market share of … Read more...

Increasing trial rates

What drives trial levels?

There are numerous factors that will impact the percentage of consumers that trial a product, which marketers can influence and drive. Some of the factors to take into account include:

  • Is this a product line extension?
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Improving awareness

Because of the nature of the structure of the ATAR forecasting model, the marketing department will become accountable for delivering the various ATAR components if the new product is approved for development and launch.

This means, therefore, if you have … Read more...