How the ATAR Forecasting Model Works

What is the ATAR forecasting model?

The ATAR forecasting model is primarily designed to forecast sales and profit contribution of new products following its initial years of release/launch.

In most cases, in addition to achieving their strategic goals, firms will … Read more...

STOP: ATAR reality checks!

Nothing destroys the credibility of a business report faster than inaccurate or wildly optimistic financial forecasts. I have seen students provide financial forecasts of a product line extension that would generate billions in dollars within a couple of years. And … Read more...

Most ATAR factors are interrelated

Interrelated ATAR factors in the forecast

Possibly one of the more troublesome issues to consider when using the ATAR model for forecasting new products is how the four basic components – awareness, trial, availability and repeat/rebuy – impact each other.… Read more...

Increasing trial rates

What drives trial levels?

There are numerous factors that will impact the percentage of consumers that trial a product, which marketers can influence and drive. Some of the factors to take into account include:

  • Is this a product line extension?
Read more...

Improving awareness

Because of the nature of the structure of the ATAR forecasting model, the marketing department will become accountable for delivering the various ATAR components if the new product is approved for development and launch.

This means, therefore, if you have … Read more...

Benefits of the ATAR forecast model

Why use the ATAR forecasting model for new products?

Obviously there are many ways of approaching a financial forecast. However, the ATAR forecasting model is one that is explicitly designed for marketing purposes. So let’s explore the key advantages and … Read more...

Availability in ATAR Forecasts

Availability in the ATAR forecasting model

Availability refers to the extent that the new product is available to consumers through retailers, various direct channels and online.

Put simply, it is a measure of the ability of consumers to purchase the … Read more...

Trial in the ATAR Forecast

The T in the ATAR forecasting model stands for trial.

What is a trial?

A trial in marketing terms may mean slightly different things at times; therefore we need to clarify what is a suitable input into the ATAR model.… Read more...